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The Arab Strategy Forum’s Elite Forecasters Challenge attracted more than three thousand applications from Arab forecasters before registration closed earlier this month. The tournament is now underway.
The tournament aims to develop future-focused analyses and forecasts on the most important political and economic events locally and globally this year, and to build a cadre of forecasters who will contribute to building a better future for the Arab world. The winning forecasters will be able to present their forecasts at The Arab Strategy Forum (ASF), to be held on December 12, 2017.
The Challenge seeks to present future visions of the region, in light of difficult recent events, and to create a generation of Arab forecasters capable of meaningfully participating in the growth and development of the region.
The Arab Strategy Forum (ASF) first announced this unique challenge in early April and called on all Arab citizens inside and outside the region to participate.
The Arab Republic of Egypt has contributed the most participants to the tournament so far (43.5%), followed by Algeria (13.19%), Morocco and Jordan (6.10% each), Syria (4.9%), the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (4.3%), Lebanon (3.8%), the Sudan (3.3%), the United Arab Emirates (3.22%), Palestine (2.31%), Tunisia and Oman (1.5% each), Yemen (1.40%), Kuwait (1.32%), Iraq (1.24%), Mauritania and Somalia (0.49% each), Qatar (0.41%), and Libya (0.16%).
The ten participants with the best forecasting performance will be invited to attend The Arab Strategy Forum (ASF) and will be honoured. The top forecaster will receive a prize of one hundred thousand US dollars in the presence of His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President of the United Arab Emirates, Prime Minister and Ruler of Dubai.
Other data provided by the challenge participants show that their ages range from 20 to 85, and they work in a mix of governmental sectors, businesses, non-governmental organizations, and other academic jobs.
Approximately 45% of the participants hold university degrees (bachelor’s degree), 40% have a master's degree or above, and finally 15% have PhDs or other professional doctorates.
To be eligible for the top awards, each participant must provide forecasts on at least 50 of 60 questions asked from May through October, after which the selection of the top 10 forecasters will occur in November 2017.
The issues addressed in the forecasting questions are, for example, the developments in the Palestinian issue and peace talks, the expected economic growth of some Arab countries during the current year, events in Syria, and the war against terrorist groups in the Middle East.
The Elite Forecasters Challenge is a collaborative effort between the Arab Strategy Forum and Good Judgment Inc.
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